BTC を含むポートフォリオの取り崩し成功確率を可視化
FIRE Monte Carlo is a free, browser-based Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) simulator for long-term retirement and FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) planning. It runs Monte Carlo simulations on a portfolio that can include Bitcoin (BTC), global equity (e.g. VWRA), bonds, credit/income assets, and cash, then visualizes the probability that the portfolio survives a given withdrawal plan over decades.
Unlike the simplistic “4% rule”, this tool lets you set your own assumptions: expected real returns, volatility, correlations, BTC allocation, De-DCA schedules to gradually rotate BTC into other assets, fixed-real or guardrail-based variable withdrawals, and simulation horizons up to 50+ years.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate is the percentage of an initial portfolio that can be withdrawn each year, adjusted for inflation, with a high probability that the portfolio lasts the full retirement horizon. The classic Trinity Study popularized the “4% rule” over 30 years; this simulator lets you test your own SWR over your own horizon and asset mix.
BTC is treated as a distinct asset class with its own expected return and volatility. You can set any BTC allocation, and use the De-DCA feature to model a schedule that gradually sells BTC and rotates the proceeds into global equity or other assets to reduce tail risk over time.
De-DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging out) is a rule that gradually reduces BTC weight over a defined period, the mirror image of DCA-in. It helps test whether a phased exit from a concentrated BTC position improves survival probability versus holding the allocation constant.
Guardrails (Guyton-Klinger style) reduce withdrawals after bad market years and increase them after good years, instead of withdrawing a fixed real amount no matter what. This typically improves survival probability at the cost of variable income.
No. FIRE Monte Carlo is an educational tool for comparing assumptions, not a forecast. It does not model taxes, ETF tracking error, derivatives, lending, or any tax-advantaged account specifics. Always consult a qualified advisor before acting on any retirement plan.
Yes, it is free to use in the browser. The simulator does not require an account. Inputs are sent to the simulation backend to compute results and are not stored or shared.